Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays (50-59) and New York Yankees (65-45) meets Friday as they swing into a 3-game AL East series in the Bronx. First pitch in the lid lifter is 7:05 pm ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 5-5

Toronto is continuing a road trip that opened with the Blue Jays losing 3 of 4 at the Baltimore Orioles Monday-Wednesday. The Jays have played well for the most part in the 2nd half, but they are just 8-13 across their last 21 games south of the border.

The Yankees have had their share of struggles over the middle months of the season, but they enter this series on a win streak. Scoring 9.2 runs per game along the way, New York has won 5 straight.

Blue Jays at Yankees projected starters

RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

Gausman (9-8, 4.44 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 119 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: Win, 9 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 7-3 win vs. Texas Rangers Saturday
• Career vs. Yankees: 10-9, 3.51 ERA (169 IP, 66 ER), 164 H, 53 BB, 169 K in 34 games (28 starts)
• Has been a solid late-season pitcher in his career; has hero foes to a .696 OPS in August games

Stroman (7-5, 3.64 ERA) is tabbed for his 22nd start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 113 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: No-decision, 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 0 K in 11-8 win at Boston Red Sox Saturday
• Career vs. Blue Jays: 0-0, 2.61 ERA (20.2 IP, 6 ER), 17 H, 8 BB, 12 K in 4 starts
• Has pitched less than 5 innings in 3 of his last 5 outings

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Blue Jays vs Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:46 pm ET.

• Moneyline: Blue Jays +144 (bet $100 to win $144) | Yankees -172 (bet $172 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-140) | Yankees -1.5 (+116)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Blue Jays at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 6, Yankees 4

Moneyline

The expected-vs.-actual ERAs for both starters tilts this one into underdog territory. Gausman has been hurt by a .326 batting average on balls in play in inning-leadoff situations and a .314 BABIP with runners in scoring position. Figure his “true-skill” ERA being a number in the high 3s.

Stroman has benefited from a .180 BABIP with RISP. Peg his skill-based ERA being in the high 4s.

That differential creates value.

BACK THE BLUE JAYS (+144).

Run line/Against the spread

Better leverage can be found with the ML action. STEER CLEAR.

Over/Under

The Over has cashed in 8 of Toronto’s last 9 games in 7 straight on the New York side. The last 6 Blue Jays-Yankees games in the Bronx have also hit the Over.

New York’s actual-vs.-expected numbers on both offense and defense would make for a lean toward slightly higher scoring games.

Figure a slight lean on the OVER 9 (-105).

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