Cardinals decisions up in the air ahead of transfer deadline: 3 players to watch

With the MLB trade deadline just days away, analysis of the St. Louis Cardinals turns to who they want to add to bolster a team that entered Saturday with a near-wild-card lead.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak is looking to buy at the deadline, and the Cardinals are expected to be active in both the starting and relief pitching markets. The market has been undefined for most of the month, but trading began picking up Thursday night, finally giving league executives a better sense of what this year’s deadline will look like.

“Our focus is pretty narrow right now,” Mozeliak said earlier this week. “We’re going to keep trying to work toward that. As far as how our club is playing right now, we feel pretty good about where our team is at, and I don’t want to take six days to make a judgment call on what we’ve accomplished over the last two months. There’s a lot of optimism in our clubhouse right now. What we’re trying to do is find ways to get better.”

A trade deadline can often make or break a team’s season. But just because a team buys doesn’t mean the market is a one-way street. Let’s take a look at those three decisions the Cardinals have to make within their roster.

Carlson has been the source of trade speculation for the third summer in a row, though each time his reasoning has been different. In 2022, St. Louis viewed the outfielder, who finished third in the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year voting, as a key member of its future. The Cardinals were heavily involved in trade talks with the Nationals for Juan Soto at the time. They were ultimately outbid by the San Diego Padres and pulled out of negotiations a day before the deadline.

Carlson was sucked into a potential return package for Soto, but the deal was far from done. Mozeliak told reporters after the deadline that Carlson “was in no way the reason we couldn’t get this deal done.” He also acknowledged Carlson’s rising status in the organization, and believed he could be the team’s long-term center fielder.

Twelve months later, that sentiment began to waver. Carlson was in decline, and a sprained ankle in May, which he tried to play through before undergoing season-ending surgery, didn’t help. When Mozeliak decided to trade at last year’s deadline, he preferred to trade only players with expiring contracts. He held on to Carlson, even though it was clear the club no longer saw him as the team’s center fielder, even when he was healthy.

This year, Carlson’s role has been drastically reduced. His strong spring was derailed by a sprained left shoulder suffered in an outfield collision on the penultimate day of spring training. The emergence of Michael Siani in center field and Alec Burleson on offense solidified those two in the lineup. Carlson has been relegated to a defensive replacement who occasionally starts against lefties.

He’s hitting .200 with a .519 OPS, and his defense — once the best part of his game — has regressed dramatically. Carlson had perhaps his worst game as a Cardinal in Friday’s 10-8 loss to the Nationals, striking out three batters and misplaying two line drives, including one that served as a three-run triple in the 10th inning.

forrrrrrrrr young!!! photo.twitter.com/tX7PY11vbM

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) July 27, 2024

At this point, it appears the Cardinals don’t have a spot for Carlson, especially when you factor in their one-dimensional bench. The team needs to improve against left-handed pitching — the Cardinals have the second-lowest average (.266) and OPS (.633) in the majors. Their left-handed bench already puts them at a disadvantage. If they’re not going to play Carlson, they’d be better off finding a trade partner. Carlson’s value is significantly lower than it was in 2022, but he’s a switch-hitting outfielder who can play all three positions, and he has two years of cost control remaining. A change of scenery could help.

Carlson is 25 years old and won’t be a free agent until 2027. He still has potential, but it’s unlikely he’ll realize it in St. Louis.

Giovanny Gallegos has been a fixture in the Cardinals’ bullpen for five years. He’s not only the team’s most used reliever. No team in baseball has used a reliever more than the Cardinals have Gallegos in his time.

But Gallegos has fallen out of favor. After a terrible April, Gallegos’ ERA jumped to 12.00 on May 5. His velocity dropped significantly, and he was placed on the injured list shortly thereafter with a right shoulder impingement. Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Fernandez have left, and the club is pleased with what they’ve seen from rookies Kyle Leahy and Chris Roycroft. This makes Gallegos redundant, even though his numbers have improved since returning from the IL.

Gallegos is the longest-tenured Cardinal and a favorite among the clubhouse and staff. The coaching staff has a lot of respect for him because of his willingness to get the ball, a trait that hasn’t always been prominent in previous bullpens. But his role right now is essentially a mop-up job, and there are pitchers like Leahy (Triple A) or Riley O-Brien (rehab assignment) that St. Louis would like to see more of.

If the club believes there are more effective right-handed relief options than Gallegos, they might be inclined to trade him, similar to how they traded shortstop Edmundo Sosa in 2022. Sosa was beloved and filled a role, but the team believed they had a better option (in this case, Paul DeJong) in the minors. Sosa was traded to Philadelphia for JoJo Romero. With Gallegos in the final year of his two-year, $11 million guaranteed deal, a team would be taking a bi-monthly flyer on him, meaning St. Louis would likely have to cover some of the salary. But it’s a scenario the Cardinals could explore, as it would allow the club to free up space in the bullpen and potentially recoup some of the cost. However, if the organization believes there is a path for Gallegos to continue pitching effectively, they will pursue it. The decision will be whether that path is more effective than other internal options.

It’s been a challenging year for Tommy Edman, who was expected to be ready for Opening Day after midseason wrist surgery but has yet to play this season. The good news for the utility man is that his wrist is currently fine. The bad news is that a sprained ankle — suffered while catching groundballs at Busch Stadium — has hampered his rehabilitation efforts. Edman missed about a week of games when the pain in his ankle flared up, but he returned to action a few days ago.

Edman has played in six rehab games for Double-A Springfield but has yet to take the field. He has only been a designated hitter, which is likely part of a lengthy rehabilitation process. It is unclear when he will be able to return to the major leagues, but Mozeliak said the next seven to 10 days will be crucial in Edman’s evaluation.

The Cardinals must determine their usage plan for Edman and how he can fit into a crowded outfield. The current plan is to make Edman a super utility again, although he will see time in center field with lefties on the opposing mound. There is also intrigue from contending teams regarding Edman, even with his injury. According to a source, at least two teams have inquired about Edman’s status.

Edman is somewhat expendable — Donovan could also serve as a super-utility — but St. Louis would need a strong offer to consider the idea. Teams value Edman for the same reason the Cardinals do: his versatility, as a switch-hitter and defender. Edman signed a two-year, $16 million extension before the season to cover his remaining arbitration years. He’s due around $8 million in 2025, meaning he’s also cost-controlled.

The Cardinals haven’t definitively put Edman on the block yet, but they’ll listen to the right offer. At this point, though, the bigger decision that needs to be made is figuring out what they can reasonably expect his production to be when (or if) he returns from injury.

(Photo of Dylan Carlson: Daniel Kucin Jr. / USA Today)