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Fantasy Trends and Hidden Gems: The Top Breakout, Rebound, and Regression Candidates for 2024-2025

DeMonk
Fantasy Trends and Hidden Gems: The Top Breakout, Rebound, and Regression Candidates for 2024-2025

One of the keys to running a successful fantasy team? Start spotting trends.

Today we’ll look at three specific trends: players on the verge of a breakthrough, players we expect to regress from last season, and prospects who are rebounding. Let’s get started right away!

Outbreaks

Lucas Raymond, DET

A 31-goal, 72-point campaign is just the beginning for Raymond. He elevated his play when the Red Wings’ season was on the line with 11 points in six games to end the season – and that’s where I expect him to pick up the thread this year.

The only red flag is the fact that Raymond scored 19 percent last year, which doesn’t scream sustainability. But his driving skills grew as last season progressed, and that could allay any concerns about regression. Raymond looks poised to become a real attacking threat this season, making him a player to watch.

JJ Peterka, BUF

I talked about Peterka in my sleep column last week, so let’s keep this one short and sweet.

While many players in Buffalo took a step back last season, Peterka was one of the few bright spots. His creation of scoring chances, scoring goals and his consistency were all highlights, especially at five-a-side. With some of the core Sabers ready to bounce back under a revamped coaching staff, Peterka should have more scoring support around him, which should take his game a step further.

Logan Cooley, UHC

All the chaos in Arizona last year overshadowed the progress this team made – and some of that was due to their rising talent.

Cooley showed glimpses of his potential throughout the season, from his ability to break out of his own zone with control to creating and passing scoring opportunities. He became increasingly enthusiastic and brought his season totals to 20 goals and 44 points.

This season, Cooley should be able to thrive regardless of where he is in the top six. He could emerge alongside another breakout candidate Dylan Guentheror maybe he can become the center that Clayton Keller has been missing.

Brandt Clarke, LAK

Clarke was expected to become more of a mainstay in Los Angeles this season as an offensive spark from the blue line. But with Drew Doughty sidelined for the next few months, Clarke became an even more meaningful part of this team. He should see an increase in the use of five-on-five And could be tapped as the replacement quarterback for the best power play unit. The latter gives him the best chance to utilize his offensive powers and best fantasy potential.

Honorable Mentions: Pavel Dorofeyev (LV), Jack Quinn (BUF), Adam Boqvist (CHI)

Rebounds

Matty Beniers, SEA

A 20 point drop in score is nothing to get excited about. It’s a pretty big step back that can’t be attributed solely to bad luck. Although he developed into more of a two-way threat, his offensive impact decreased from his rookie year.

With new voices behind the bench, the Kraken will need to make some tactical adjustments to get back on track offensively. That should help both at five-on-five and especially on the power play. The addition of Brandon Montour could add another offensive spark from the blueline that also helps elevate this forward group.

The Kraken are still taking their balanced approach, so Beniers likely won’t see the same minutes as other top players in the league. But after last year’s setbacks, I expect him to build on his 57-point rookie season.

Elias Lindholm, BOS

Lindholm suffered from terrible shooting luck in Calgary last year. He shot less than seven percent in all situations on his way to nine goals. That was about nine goals fewer than expected based on his shot quality. The center did better in converting his opportunities in Vancouver, but we think Boston could be an even better fit for him.

Lindholm is in a position to rebound with the Bruins, especially if he plays on par with David Pastrnak. There he did not have to be the driver of his line. Instead, he can play a supporting role alongside the elite winger, which should help him channel his strengths.

Mikhail Sergachev, UHC

Sergachev has had a few difficult seasons. It took him some time to adjust to playing more meaningful minutes in Tampa Bay after Ryan McDonagh was traded in 2022-23. And last year, injuries shortened his season to just 34 games – and his play in those games wasn’t exactly encouraging.

Now Sergachev has a chance to prove he can be a No. 1 defenseman outside of Victor Hedman’s shadow.

As Utah’s top defender, the coaches will likely maximize the effort around him, which should mean top minutes with the team’s best attackers at even strength and on PP1. If John Marino can also bounce back, Sergachev should also get the defensive support to thrive in this expanded role.

Jamie Drysdale, PHI

Drysdale has shown glimpses of his skills at the NHL level, but hasn’t put it all together yet. Injuries have at times derailed his progress. And in some cases he seemed overwhelmed by his workload.

There’s certainly some risk involved, but there could be an offensive reward if the Flyers’ defensive structure can help balance his play. What stood out to me was the fact that his teams – the Flyers and Ducks – shot less than four percent in his five-on-five minutes and had a combined save percentage of .883. That helps explain why his goalscoring percentage was a putrid 24 percent, while his teams were expected to be closer to 45 percent over 34 games. The actual goals are important, and Drysdale’s play on both ends of the ice likely contributed to such poor results. But perhaps, with a little more luck than last season, he can bounce back from last year’s injury-plagued struggles.

Honorable mentions: Andrew Mangiapane (WAS), Joonas Korpisalo (BOS)

Regressions

Sam Reinhart, FLA

With the regressions, the focus will be on two of the biggest prospects in the league.

A 57-goal season is a big jump from Reinhart’s previous record of 33. And the fact he scored 24.5 percent – ​​the second-highest rate in the league – added to that success and screamed unstoppable.

So, how do you navigate Reinhart this season?

As a fellow manager with Reinhart in their team, do I expect another season with more than 50 goals? Probably not, especially if Matthew Tkachuk becomes more of a dual threat on the power play this season after playing in a more playmaking role last season.

But do I still expect him to be productive? Absolute.

The quality of his shot attempts last year was 42 expected goals, before taking his finishing talent into account. That’s a promising sign because 1.) it shows the power he has behind his goals, and 2.) it’s not entirely out of character either. It’s progress from his projected target total of 39 in 2022-2023.

Reinhart will likely remain a two-way threat in Florida this season and score a lot, thanks to his role in the top six and PP1. But a more reasonable expectation is probably the 80-point range he reached before last year’s highs. Anything more than that is just gravy.

JT Molenaar, VAN

How realistic were Miller’s numbers last season? It’s the big question we faced this year in the Player Tiers project.

Miller created quality chances while balancing tough minutes in Vancouver. He scored 37 goals, 103 points and 40 power play points. Every aspect of his season has been excellent from a fantasy perspective.

But we can’t help but reflect on the fact that the Canucks shot 12.9 percent in Miller’s five-on-five minutes last year. Not only was his on-ice shooting percentage the third highest in the league, but Vancouver’s goaltenders also earned a .922 save percentage. These numbers, especially together, are generally a sign of unsustainable results.

What should you do with this information? Have more reasonable expectations this season. Miller should still be a fantasy asset, but unless he can recreate last year’s magic without the same amount of puck luck, a landing spot in the 90-point range feels more realistic.

Honorable Mentions: MacKenzie Weegar (CAL), Jake Neighbors (STL)

GO DEEPER

2024-2025 NHL Season Outlook: Each team’s projection, from worst to first

Data via Evolving hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZonesAnd NaturalStatTrick. This story is based on shot-based statistics; here’s one primer on these figures.

(Top photo by Lucas Raymond: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

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